Photo: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images
The Tampa Bay Lightning (16-8-2) will attempt to continue a four-game home win streak when they play the Pittsburgh Penguins (13-7-5) on Thursday, Dec. 4 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
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Get ready for this matchup with a look at who we project to come out on top in Thursday's game.
Over the past 10 contests, the Penguins have recorded a 4-3-3 record after totaling 25 total goals (six power-play goals on 21 power-play opportunities during that span, for a conversion rate of 28.6%). Their opponents have scored a combined 27 goals in those games.
Lightning vs. Penguins Predictions for Thursday
Our computer projections model for this encounter calls for a final tally of Lightning 4, Penguins 2.
- Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-162)
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 5.9 goals on average)
- Spread Pick: Penguins (+1.5)
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Lightning Splits and Trends
- The Lightning have finished 3-2-5 in overtime matchups as part of an overall record of 16-8-2.
- Tampa Bay has 14 points (6-5-2) in the 13 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
- In the two games this season the Lightning recorded only one goal, they finished 0-1-1.
- Tampa Bay has scored a pair of goals in eight games this season (3-4-1 record, seven points).
- The Lightning have scored more than two goals in 16 games (13-3-0, 26 points).
- In the eight games when Tampa Bay has recorded a lone power-play goal, it registered 13 points after finishing 6-1-1.
- In games when it has outshot opponents, Tampa Bay is 5-4-1 (11 points).
- The Lightning's opponents have had more shots in 16 games. The Lightning went 11-4-1 in those matchups (23 points).
Penguins Splits and Trends
- The Penguins have earned a record of 1-5-6 in overtime matchups on their way to an overall mark of 13-7-5.
- In the seven games Pittsburgh has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up six points.
- This season the Penguins scored just one goal in three games and they've earned two points (0-1-2) in those contests.
- Pittsburgh has two points (0-3-2) in five games this season when it has scored exactly two goals.
- The Penguins have scored three or more goals in 16 games, earning 27 points from those contests.
- This season, Pittsburgh has recorded a single power-play goal in eight games and registered six points with a record of 2-4-2.
- When outshooting its opponent this season, Pittsburgh is 4-4-2 (10 points).
- The Penguins' opponents have had more shots in 14 games. The Penguins went 8-3-3 in those matchups (19 points).
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Team Stats Comparison
| Lightning Rank | Lightning AVG | Penguins AVG | Penguins Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | 3.27 | Goals Scored | 3.16 | 10th |
| 4th | 2.58 | Goals Allowed | 2.72 | 9th |
| 21st | 26.5 | Shots | 26.9 | 20th |
| 13th | 27.3 | Shots Allowed | 28.4 | 19th |
| 27th | 15% | Power Play % | 33.33% | 1st |
| 1st | 89.16% | Penalty Kill % | 84.93% | 4th |
Lightning vs. Penguins Game Time and TV Channel
- When: Thursday, December 4, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN+
- Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
- Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
- Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida
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