The Toronto Maple Leafs (13-7-2) and Tampa Bay Lightning (12-8-2) play at Amalie Arena on Saturday, November 30 at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The Maple Leafs fell to the Florida Panthers 5-1 in their last outing, while the Lightning are coming off a 3-2 overtime victory against the Nashville Predators.
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Ahead of this matchup, here's who we expect to take home the victory in Saturday's hockey action.
Over the last 10 games, the Lightning have put up a 5-3-2 record after putting up 37 total goals (eight power-play goals on 28 power-play opportunities during that span, for a success rate of 28.6%). Their opponents have scored a combined 27 goals in those games.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Predictions for Saturday
Our computer projection model for this matchup calls for a final tally of Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 2.
- Moneyline Pick: Lightning (+119)
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 6.2 goals on average)
- Spread Pick: Lightning (+1.5)
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Maple Leafs Splits and Trends
- The Maple Leafs (13-7-2 overall) have a 2-2-4 record in contests that have needed overtime.
- Toronto has eight points (3-1-2) in the six games it has played that were decided by one goal.
- In the four games this season the Maple Leafs registered only one goal, they finished 0-3-1.
- Toronto has lost both games this season when it scored a pair of goals.
- The Maple Leafs are 13-0-1 in the 14 games when they have scored three or more goals (to register 27 points).
- In the six games when Toronto has capitalized on a single power-play goal, it has a 4-1-1 record (nine points).
- In the 10 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Toronto is 6-4-0 (12 points).
- The Maple Leafs' opponents have had more shots in 11 games. The Maple Leafs finished 7-2-2 in those matchups (16 points).
Lightning Splits and Trends
- The Lightning (12-8-2 overall) have posted a record of 3-2-5 in matchups that have needed OT this season.
- Tampa Bay has earned nine points (4-3-1) in its eight games that finished with a one-goal margin.
- This season the Lightning registered just one goal in one game and they lost in overtime.
- Tampa Bay failed to win all four games this season when it scored a pair of goals.
- The Lightning have scored more than two goals 17 times, earning 25 points from those matchups (12-4-1).
- This season, Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal in six games and registered six points with a record of 3-3-0.
- When outshooting its opponent this season, Tampa Bay is 6-5-0 (12 points).
- The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in nine games, going 5-2-2 to register 12 points.
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Team Stats Comparison
| Maple Leafs Rank | Maple Leafs AVG | Lightning AVG | Lightning Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 2.95 | Goals Scored | 3.77 | 4th |
| 3rd | 2.59 | Goals Allowed | 3.05 | 16th |
| 9th | 29.9 | Shots | 28 | 21st |
| 13th | 28.4 | Shots Allowed | 28.5 | 15th |
| 16th | 20.27% | Power Play % | 23.53% | 8th |
| 7th | 82.05% | Penalty Kill % | 77.61% | 22nd |
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game Time and TV Channel
- When: Saturday, November 30, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: ESPN+
- Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
- Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
- Where: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida
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