CARNEY: My First Crack At The Opening Day Roster

With today being the first day of Spring, I figured it's the right time to kick off what will be a weekly opportunity to try and channel my inner-Erik Neander and try and predict what the Tampa Bay Rays will look like when they take the field against the Boston Red Sox March 29 at Tropicana Field to begin the 2018 regular season.

Before I start, a couple of ground rules:

  1. The roster will be made up of players that are, at the time of publication, a part of the Rays organization.  That means no guys still on the free agent market like Jose Bautista.  After all, there's no telling (especially with some of the wheeler dealers in this front office) what kind of moves could be made between now and March 29. For all we know there could be 20 of the 25 guys on the roster that are somewhere else at this moment. Let's hope not.
  2. For this first round (and in subsequent posts where someone new makes the projection) I'll do my best to try and explain my reasoning, but there will be some that are pure gut instinct and you'll just have to be happy with it.
  3. You're always welcome to give me your feedback on Twitter, but be aware that trolling and other nonconstructive comments ("Y u no hav Honeywell?!?!") with either get you muted or blocked, depending on my mood.

That said, let's get rolling!

STARTING PITCHERS

I know that a question was asked during the team's introductory press conference Tuesday about the pitching staff and the possibility that starters may not get to a third time through the batting order.  However, I'm still going under the assumption that like it has been for the last 40-plus years, there will be five pitchers in the rotation when things get started just over six weeks from now.

RHP Chris Archer (2017 record: 10-12, 4.07 ERA) - Despite how some people in the stands (and others on the radio) may feel, the 29-year-old is expected to be the guy who will throw the first pitch of the 2018 season.  He's thrown 200 innings each of the last three seasons, but has allowed 57 home runs in the last two seasons.  This comes after having just 46 homers hits off him in his first three seasons combined in the bigs.  Kevin Cash, Kyle Snyder and company would love to see Archer return to 2015 form, when he finished in the top 5 for the Cy Young Award

RHP Jake Odorizzi (2017: 10-8, 4.14 ERA) - I know there have been plenty of rumors swirling about the possibility that when all is said and done that the soon-to-be 28-year-old (he'll turn 28 on the final day of the Grapefruit League season March 27) may be elsewhere, but until the front office actually pulls the trigger on a deal, there's no doubt that Jake will be in the rotation at the beginning of the year.  Most of Jake's numbers from 2017 are up from the previous year (higher ERA, higher FIP, higher WH/IP, more walks, more HR's allowed), most of it can be attributed to a lingering back problem that he tried to pitch through most of the year and eventually forced him to the disabled list and caused him to miss five starts.  His September was a giant step forward, allowing just three earned runs in 26.1 innings and held batters to a slash line of .116 / .198 / .221.

LHP Blake Snell (2017: 5-7, 4.04 ERA with Rays, 5-0; 2.66 ERA with AAA Durham Bulls) - I know you're probably expecting me to put the 25-year-old left-hander on blast and if this were the All-Star break last year, that might be what happened.  But something happened when Snell was sent back to Durham.  I'm not sure if Kyle Snyder gave him a pep talk, a stern talking to, or a cleat to the rear end, but whatever it was, it worked.  Snell had five outings of seven innings in his final 13 starts of the year at the Major League level, and from July 24th until the end of the year, held hitters to a .219 / .277 / .368 slash line.  With Snyder now his pitching coach at the big league level, Snell should hopefully take another step (or maybe two) forward.

RHP Jake Faria (2017: 5-4, 3.43 ERA with Rays; 6-1, 3.07 ERA with AAA Durham Bulls) - Faria turned what was a fantastic start at the Triple-A level (a 1.125 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 and 3.82 K/BB ratio) and turned it into an amazing beginning to a major league career, joining a select few pitchers who have pitched at least six innings or more allowed one run or less and won each of his first three career starts.  But after getting to 5-1 on July 25th, you could tell the right-hander had hit the wall.  He went 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in his final seven appearances.  The Rays will hope that Faria is ready for a sophomore season where he won't sneak up on anyone, and can make the necessary adjustments.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi (2017: DNP while recovering from Tommy John surgery) - Eovaldi will be the true wild card for the back end of the rotation this spring: a pitcher the Rays signed to a two-year deal before the 2017 season knowing that the first year would be spent rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  Before his elbow problems, Eovaldi was turning into a pitcher that was on everyone's radar.  A fastball with an average velocity of nearly 98 MPH.  He was utilizing as many as five different pitches (along with the four-seamer, he was throwing a splitter and a slider, plus mixing in a curve and even a cutter).  Now it's about regaining the confidence he was showing as a member of the Yankees, and remembering that despite a ton of experience at the Major League level (he made his debut all the way back in 2011), he is still only just 28 years old.

RELIEF PITCHERS

RHP Alex Colome (2017: 2-3, 3.24 ERA, 47 saves) - He's been one of the most widely coveted relievers this offseason, and many people (including Colome himself) thought a deal would have been made to send him elsewhere.  Still, as long as he's wearing a Rays jersey, he's the guy who will be getting the ball in the ninth inning with a lead.

RHP Sergio Romo (2017: 1-1, 6.12 ERA with Dodgers; 2-0 1.42 ERA with Rays) - Most people saw Romo as washed up when he struggled in Los Angeles, but Neander took a chance before the trade deadline on a guy they went after hard last offseason.  Romo's never going to overpower you, but he brings a Joel Peralta-like quality to the bullpen.  He's not afraid to throw anything in any count.  His slider can still make right-handed hitters look foolish.  Plus, he's one of the most affable and good natured players you'll find.  Yes, he'll still need to put up the numbers, but he's also a great piece to have in the clubhouse.

LHP Dan Jennings (2017: 3-1, 3.45 ERA with White Sox; 0-0, 3.44 ERA with Rays) - Tampa Bay traded for Jennings at the deadline, looking for a left-handed pitcher that could induce a ground ball when needed.  However, what they found was a lefty who was having issues with his command at times.  He walked 12 batters in 18.1 innings with Tampa Bay in 2017 after walking just 19 batters in 44.1 innings with the White Sox.  When you're tasked with just getting a single out, allowing a walk can make fans want to pull their hair out.  He'll need to cut back down to his pre-trade numbers.

LHP Jose Alvarado (2017: 0-3, 3.64 ERA with Rays; 0-1, 2.38 ERA with AA Montgomery; 0-2, 3.93 ERA, 1 save with AAA Durham) - Tampa Bay farm director Mitch Lukevics told me last spring that Alvarado had some of the best stuff of any pitcher in the organization.  The problem was going to be getting him to repeat any successful pitch with the frequency needed to be a successful pitcher.  We saw a fastball from the 22-year-old that reached the upper 90s and still had enough movement on it that hitters had problems squaring it up even if they knew where he was throwing it.  He went back to the minors and with the help of Kyle Snyder started to refine an offspeed pitch to make the fastball even more effective.  We'll see how it looks.

RHP Ryne Stanek (2017: 0-0, 5.85 ERA with Rays, 3-0, 1.21 ERA with AAA Durham) - Stanek had so much success after being converted from a starter to a reliever in 2016 that the Rays had to give him a shot in the bigs.  But the former 1st round pick learned quickly that velocity does not equal success at the highest level.  The 26 year old struck out 13.1 batters per 9 innings (29 K in 20 IP), but he also gave up 11.7 hits/9 innings (26 hits, including six home runs).  In comparison, the righty allowed the same number of hits at the Triple-A level, but in over double the number of innings.  Stanek will hope he can build off the final three appearances of 2017, where he allowed just one hit and one walk and struck out four in three innings.

RHP Jonny Venters (2017: rehab from elbow surgery) - He's had a number of elbow issues in his career (three Tommy John surgeries, plus a fourth surgery to correct another elbow problem), but he looked strong when pitching through the minors last year.  If he's able to make it all the way back to the big leagues, it would be an incredible story for a pitcher that has some incredible stuff and knows where and when to use it.

RHP Matt Andriese (2017: 5-5, 4.50 ERA) - Andriese missed nearly half of 2017 after suffering a stress reaction in his hip, and has shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen almost since arriving at the big-league level.  I think as long as the front office doesn't make a move involving a starter, he's going to find himself in the same situation.  However, if Neander and company decide to part ways with one of the five starters, Andriese could find himself with a more steady dose of starters work, at least for the start of the year.

RHP Austin Pruitt (2017: 7-5, 5.31 ERA with Rays; 0-1, 2.55 ERA with AAA Durham) - Remember when you thought Pruitt would never get a big-league hitter out?  Then remember how efficient he looked as a starter filling in for an injured Jake Odorizzi?  The real Austin Pruitt is somewhere in the middle.  If the Rays are truly looking to go no more than two full times through the rotation for some of their starters, they'll need more than one guy who can throw multiple innings out of the bullpen.  It's why I have Pruitt instead of someone like Jaime Schultz on the Opening Day squad to start.

CATCHERS

C Wilson Ramos (.260, 11 HR, 35 RBI) - The Rays were able to get him for a bargain because of his ACL injury at the end of 2016.  They waited the first half of last year for him to be ready, and the Buffalo did not disappoint after getting off to a slow start.  In fact, in September, he was as hot as any Rays hitter.  He hit .317 and slugged .600 after September 1.  His biggest obstacle from last year was his throwing.  He threw out just 17 percent of runners trying to steal, ten percent below league average and just the first time in his big-league career that he failed to at least be at league average.

C Jesus Sucre (.256, 7 HR, 29 RBI) - Sucre made the most of his limited time behind first Derek Norris and then Ramos in 2017 after making the team as a non-roster invitee.  Most fans will mention how Sucre seemed to come up with the big hit with runners in scoring position, but he hit just .279 in the situation and had just one hit all year with the bases loaded.  But the backup catcher's job is to handle the pitching staff and be able to throw out runners at an average clip, both of which Sucre can do without a problem.

INFIELDERS

3B Matt Duffy (2017: DNP due to Achilles injury) - It's likely that no one will have more pressure on him this year than Duffy, as he is the most likely candidate to take over at the hot corner, where Evan Longoria patrolled for nearly a decade.  Will he be a player that hits 30 homers, drives in 100 RBI and brings home the Gold Glove every year?  No, but then again, neither was Longoria.  But if Duffy can show that the heel problems are truly behind him and he can build on what made him the runner-up for National League Rookie of the Year in 2015, I think you'll be pleased.

SS Adeiny Hechaverria (2017: .277, 1 HR, 6 RBI with Marlins; .257, 7 HR, 24 RBI with Rays) - Neander acquired Hechaverria from the Miami Marlins to try and shore up the defense at shortstop, and Adeiny did just that.  He also found that he can still hit the ball a little bit as well.  The 28-year-old will never be mistaken for Alex Rodriguez or Cal Ripken at the plate, but he's not expected to be.

2B Daniel Robertson (2017: .206, 5 HR 19 RBI with Rays; .372, 1 HR, 1 RBI with AAA Durham) - We come to the only true platoon I have on the roster this year.  D-Rob showed that he can handle the big leagues from a defensive perspective, but had his struggles at the plate.  He missed a month with a neck injury, but went 7 for his last 48 to end the year and appeared in only 17 games after June 25.

2B Ryan Schimpf (2017: .158, 14 HR, 25 RBI with Padres, .202, 19 HR, 44 RBI with AAA El Paso) - The other half of the second base platoon.  Erik Neander spent this offseason chasing left-handed hitting second basemen, and while I have Schimpf on this roster, it's only because of the pop his bat displays when he makes contact.  This could also easily be Joey Wendleor Micah Johnson (though the latter is less likely after being outrighted to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Sergio Romo).

1B Brad Miller (2017: .201, 9 HR, 40 RBI) - Manager Kevin Cash said Tuesday that Miller was the leading candidate to be the team's first baseman on Opening Day.  He's coming off a disappointing season offensively, but you have to wonder how much of his offensive struggles could be attributed to the two DL stints that caused him to miss six weeks.  Is he the 30 homer guy from 2016?  Most likely not, but don't be shocked to see him in the 20 homer category.

OUTFIELDERS

OF Kevin Kiermaier (2017: .276, 15 HR, 39 RBI) - With Evan Longoria now in San Francisco, Kiermaier is now the face of the franchise, at least for the position players.  He's now missed significant portions of each of the last two seasons due to injury, so for him to be able to take that next step, he's got to be able to stay on the field the entire year.

OF Steven Souza Jr. (2017: .239, 30 HR, 78 RBI) - Souza played in more than 120 games for the first time in his big league career last season, appearing in 148 contests.  He surpassed the 20 home run mark as well for the first time, getting all the way to 30 homers, and while his eye at the plate started out strong, he fizzled down the stretch, hitting just .170 after July 31.  He also struck out 179 times last season.  He'd love to have that number go down while keeping everything else where it was in 2017.

OF Denard Span (2017: .272, 12 HR, 43 RBI) - Span had a down year by his own admission in 2017, but still managed to have more than one hit per game played on average with the Giants.  He'll move from center field to left field for the Rays this year, so we'll have to see how he adjusts to that and playing under the roof at Tropicana Field for 81 games.

OF Mallex Smith (2017: .270, 2 HR, 12 RBI) - Mallex got an extended look last year when Kevin Kiermaier went down with a fractured hip, and while you saw the good things he can do (lay down a bunt, get aggressive on the base paths), you also saw some of his flaws get explouted.  You saw that because his arm isn't on the same level as the two-time Gold Glove center fielder, teams weren't afraid to take the other base on Smith.  You saw his bunting stop when he struggled.  With a healthy outfield, he'll likely return to the fourth outfielder role.

DESIGNATED HITTERS

DH Corey Dickerson (2017: .282, 27 HR, 62 RBI) - Dickerson started off 2017 like gangbusters and it led to his selection to the All-Star Game.  However, take a closer look at his splits and you see a disturbing trend.  His slugging percentage and OPS dropped every single month last year, and after hitting .312 int he first half of the season, he hit just .241 after the All-Star break with 10 homers and just 20 RBI.  He also dropped 25 pounds last year to get into shape to play in the field, but with Span and Smith on the roster, I don't see him getting a whole lot of time outside of the DH role in 2017.


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